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The Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) and Energy Transition Advisors (ETA) have presented the second report of...Watch Video
The tide is turning against the thermal coal industry – high cost new mines don’t make sense for investors
New York, 22 September 2014 -- New research by the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) today identifies major...Read More
Our research on coal consists of a package of detailed analyses of coal supply, demand and financial trends.
The accompanying technical papers produced in collaboration with Energy Transition Advisors and the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) can be downloaded at the bottom of this page.
Following the oil report, this risk analysis focuses for the first time on the global coal industry, highlighting that $112bn of future capital expenditure (capex) in potential thermal coal production (excluding China) is at risk of becoming stranded.
- Profits in thermal coal are already hard to find in today’s market. Coal companies are facing greater headwinds all the time with greater energy efficiency, cheaper alternatives and new pollution regulations eroding demand.
- Future demand and price levels may not meet current industry expectations. High cost coal producers are gambling on survival in the hope that prices will somehow recover.
- Peak thermal coal demand in China could be imminent. OECD demand is already falling. The resulting oversupply could flood the market, further weakening prices and asset values.
- Deploying additional capital expenditure into high cost production is risky, especially for new mines, which typically require expensive new rail infrastructure and port facilities to get coal to market.
Find here the report Coal Report – Media Coverage
King Coal is becoming King Canute, as the industry struggles to turn back the tide of reducing demand, falling prices and lower earnings.
We see a low demand scenario leading to a $75/tonne peak break-even price for profitable new development in seaborne markets –companies and investors need to understand their exposure to projects higher up the cost curve.
The world’s coal industry is playing musical chairs with demand – every time the music stops another piece of the market is being taken away.
Research Director, CTI
The world is changing for the fossil fuel industry, especially the coal sector which is facing a shrinking demand window. Investors want assurances that capital is not being spent on high-cost, high-carbon projects that may not be competitive as global coal demand declines.